Possible Long Term Impacts the RNC Will Have for Republicans; A Look at the 1976 RNC

If you are new to US politics and have no idea what a convention entails, the easiest thing to compare it to is the Olympics. Every four years, after the primary season and before the election in November, both the Republicans and Democrats hold separate conventions in different cities. Instead of athletes, however, there will be all the delegates of that particular party present. 

The short-term outcome of each convention is that each party will have nominated a candidate, one whom they want running to be the next president. However, what I find more interesting are the long-term outcomes the conventions will have for each party.

For this blog, I have chosen to focus on the RNC because that is the topic of the class I am currently taking and I will be volunteering in and around Cleveland during the RNC. With that being said, Trump will arguably be the most important person to watch during the RNC, but also keep an eye on key speakers, including Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan. It is also noticeable who will, at this point in time, not be speaking, especially Ohio Governor John Kasich. Pay attention to how the RNC might set up future presidential hopefuls and if it will unite or divide the GOP.

Since the 2016 RNC does not occur until next week, it is important to look at past conventions and try to predict the outcome. In class today, we read an oral history of the 1976 RNC in Kansas City, Missouri, courtesy of Politico. Read that article here.

Photo by David Hume Kennerly (Creative Commons license)

First things first, who exactly were the nominee options in 1976? That would be the incumbent Gerald Ford and conservative challenger Ronald Reagan. At the beginning of the primary season, Ford had won the most delegates, but after Reagan gained the backing of North Carolina senator Jesse Helms, Reagan won primary after primary. Due to Reagan's momentum, neither candidate got the 1,130 delegates required to win the nomination, thus causing the 1976 RNC to be a contested convention.

While there may not be a direct challenger to Trump, there are certainly several prominent Republicans who do not support him. So does that mean the Republicans will end up divided after the 2016 RNC? That will largely depend on the speakers at the RNC next week.

Again looking at the 1976 RNC, Ford ended up winning the nomination, with the final vote being 1,187 for Ford and 1,070 for Reagan. With the vote being close, you might assume the Republican delegates would leave divided. On the last night of the convention, Ford wanted Reagan to give a speech, one that proved to be the defining moment of the convention, leaving almost every delegate with a sense of unity. In addition, Reagan's speech set him up to run in 1980. Who knew one speech could have a huge impact? 

So using the 1976 RNC as a reference point for predicting long-term outcomes, the first thing to pay attention to is to who exactly will be speaking next week and who will not. The Atlantic writes who, as of at this point, who will and will not speak. Read the article here.

Photo by Erik Drost (Creative Commons license)

The first politician to come to mind, especially if he wants to run in 2020, is Ted Cruz. Although he has not endorsed Trump, he has agreed to speak next week at the convention. It is quite possible that Cruz's speech will set him up for the 2020 presidential election in a similar way Reagan's speech set him up for the 1980 presidential speech. Another speaker to watch closely will be Paul Ryan's 10 minute speech, who although endorsing Trump has disagreed with him on several key issues. In the same article by The Atlantic, it is reported that Ryan "wants to talk about how [the] party should unite".

Besides listening to Cruz and Ryan, it is worth noting who will not be speaking, especially Ohio Governor John Kasich. I may not be from Cleveland, but I go to school just outside the city and next week all eyes will be on Cleveland. For Kasich not to attend, is certainly strange, considering Ohio is his home state and all the work that has been put into preparing Cleveland for the 2016 RNC.

So readers, get prepared for all the 2016 RNC has in store and if you find the time, study up on past conventions. Lastly, pay attention to who speaks and what they speak about, as what happens in the 2016 RNC impacts us all.